Abstract—Due to the aftermath of global financial crisis and emerging recovery, the issue of inflation is one to be considered extremely important in the next few years of expansion. This study carries out multi-step ahead forecasts of major variables like changes in food and beverages, changes in global inflation, changes in US dollar trade weighted index, and changes in housing availability on inflation by using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework. Findings suggest an improvement in forecasting changes in inflation, and also that limited housing supply remains a major cause of inflation in Saudi Arabia.
Index Terms—Forecasts, inflation, Saudi Arabia, VAR.
M. I. Gurrib is an Assistant Professor in Finance with the Prince Sultan University, College of Business Administration, Department of Finance and Accounting, PO Box 66833, Riyadh 11586, Saudi Arabia., phone: +966 1 494 8977; e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.
S. Z. Ahmad is an Assistant Professor of International Business and Entrepreneurship Management with the Prince Sultan University, College of Business Administration, Department of Management , PO Box 66833, Riyadh 11586, Saudi Arabia., phone: +966 1 494 8926; e-mail: email@example.com.
Cite: Dr. Muhammad. I. Gurrib, Dr. Syed. Z. Ahmad, "Saudi Arabia’s Inflation Agenda: A Vector Autoregressive Framework," International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 63-67, 2010.