• ISSN: 2010-023X (Print)
    • Abbreviated Title: Int. J. Trade, Economics and Financ.
    • Frequency: Bimonthly
    • DOI: 10.18178/IJTEF
    • Editor-in-Chief: Prof.Tung-Zong (Donald) Chang
    • Executive Editor: Ms. Cherry L. Chen
    • Abstracting/ Indexing:  ProQuest, Crossref, Electronic Journals Library , EBSCO, and Ulrich's Periodicals Directory
    • E-mail: ijtef@ejournal.net
IJTEF 2011 Vol.2(3): 242-246 ISSN: 2010-023X
DOI: 10.7763/IJTEF.2011.V2.109

Identifying an Appropriate Forecasting Model for Forecasting Total Import of Bangladesh

Tanvir Khan
Abstract—Forecasting future values of economic variables are some of the most critical tasks of a country. Especially the values related to foreign trade are to be forecasted efficiently as the need for planning is great in this sector. The main objective of this research paper is to select an appropriate model for time series forecasting of total import (in taka crore) of Bangladesh. The decision throughout this study is mainly concerned with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, Holt-Winters’ trend and seasonal model with seasonality modeled additively and vector autoregressive model with some other relevant variables. A try was made to derive a unique and suitable forecasting model of total import of Bangladesh that will help us to find forecasts with minimum forecasting error.

Index Terms—Arima model, forecasting accuracy Holt Winters’ trend and seasonality method, Out of sample accuracy measurement.VAR model.

Tanvir Khan, MS Student, Institute of Statistical Research and Training, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh (tkhan1@isrt.ac.bd).


Cite:Tanvir Khan, "Identifying an Appropriate Forecasting Model for Forecasting Total Import of Bangladesh," International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance vol.2, no.3, pp. 242-246, 2011.

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