• ISSN: 2010-023X
    • Frequency: Bimonthly
    • DOI: 10.18178/IJTEF
    • Editor-in-Chief: Prof.Tung-Zong (Donald) Chang
    • Executive Editor: Ms. Cherry L. Chen
    • Abstracting/ Indexing: Engineering & Technology Digital Library, ProQuest, Crossref, Electronic Journals Library, DOAJ , EBSCO, and Ulrich's Periodicals Directory
    • E-mail: ijtef@ejournal.net
IJTEF 2011 Vol.2(2): 154-160 ISSN: 2010-023X
DOI: 10.7763/IJTEF.2011.V2.95

An ANN Approach to Demand Forecasting in Retail Trade in Bangladesh

M. Ahsan Akhtar Hasin, Shuvo Ghosh, and Mahmud A. Shareef
Abstract—For a small retail trading chain, demand forecasting is the main driver to effectiveness and efficiency. However, as large number of varied models and products are marketed through a super market, several attributes affect forecasting. Because of these affecting parameters, nonlinearity arises. As a result, traditional forecasting approaches can not provide good estimation of demand. A fuzzy neural network analysis can provide better solution in this case. This research first analyzed the trend and seasonality patterns of a selected product in a retail trading chain in Bangladesh. Then demand was forecasted using traditional Holt-Winter’s model. The same was done again using artificial neural network (ANN) with fuzzy uncertainty. Finally, the errors, measured in terms of MAPE, were compared for finding the best fitting forecasting approach. The research found that the error levels in Holt-Winter’s approach are higher than those obtained through fuzzy ANN approach. This is because of influence of several factors on demand function in retail trading system. It was also observed that as forecasting period becomes smaller, the ANN approach provides more accuracy in forecast.

Index Terms—Nonlinear demand estimation, retail trading chain, Holt-Winter’s approach, neural network analysis.

Dr. M. Ahsan Akhtar Hasin is a Professor in the Department of, Industrial and Production Engineering (IPE) at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh. Email: aahasin@ipe.buet.ac.bd.
Mr. Shuvo Ghosh is an Assistant Professor in the Department of, Industrial and Production Engineering (IPE) at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh.
Dr. Mahmud Akhtar Shareef is an Associate Professor in the School of Business at North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

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Cite:M. Ahsan Akhtar Hasin, Shuvo Ghosh, and Mahmud A. Shareef, "An ANN Approach to Demand Forecasting in Retail Trade in Bangladesh," International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance vol.2, no.2, pp. 154-160, 2011.

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