• ISSN: 2010-023X
    • Frequency: Bimonthly
    • DOI: 10.18178/IJTEF
    • Editor-in-Chief: Prof.Tung-Zong (Donald) Chang
    • Executive Editor: Ms. Cherry L. Chen
    • Abstracting/ Indexing: Engineering & Technology Digital Library, ProQuest, Crossref, Electronic Journals Library, DOAJ , EBSCO, and Ulrich's Periodicals Directory
    • E-mail: ijtef@ejournal.net
IJTEF 2017 Vol.8(1): 20-24 ISSN: 2010-023X
DOI: 10.18178/ijtef.2017.8.1.533

Modeling the Structural Shifts in Gross National Product, Imports and Exports with Cubic Spline Regression

C. Necat Berberoğlu and Bahar Berberoğlu
Abstract—In all the countries in which economic crisis were experienced, the economic problems faced in the years of these crisis cause big changes particularly in economic time series of the country. These time series are usually affected by various internal or external events. In some cases such as wars, political and economic crisis, sharp changes and breaks occur in all the economic data collected in their periods, but these time series usually keep their continuity with some structural shifts or structural changes. In this study our attempt was to shed light on the question that, how the economic parameters such as Gross National Product, Exports and Imports which are in interaction, change in the years of economic crisis? Do same structural changes or shifts occur in these parameters always occur at the same time or similarly? In order to investigate this issue, we used cubic spline regression technique in modeling the relationship between GNP, Exports and Imports, then we showed that how prediction sum of squares residuals statistics can improve the analysis in spline models. So, in the study we exposed that the structural shifts and structural changes occur with same time lags on the chosen economic parameters in Turkey.

Index Terms—Cubic spline regression, structural change, PRESS statistics, time series.

C. Necat Berberoğlu is with the Anadolu University, Open Education Faculty, Yunusemre Campus, Eskişehir/Turkey (e-mail: bdirem@anadolu.edu.tr).
Bahar Berberoğlu is with the Anadolu University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Yunusemre Campus, Eskişehir/Turkey (e-mail: nberbero@anadolu.edu.tr).

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Cite: C. Necat Berberoğlu and Bahar Berberoğlu, "Modeling the Structural Shifts in Gross National Product, Imports and Exports with Cubic Spline Regression," International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance vol.8, no.1, pp. 20-24, 2017.

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