IJTEF 2013 Vol.4(5): 288-295 ISSN: 2010-023X
DOI: 10.7763/IJTEF.2013.V4.303

Sugar Commodity Price Analysis: Examining Sugar Producer Countries

Kumara Jati
Abstract—This study examined the dynamic relationship between Brazilian Sugar Price, Indian Sugar Price, French Sugar Price, Indonesian Sugar Price, exchange rate Brazilian real/US$, exchange rate US$/Euro, Oil Price, Gold Price, and LIBOR; and to detect if there is any difference between exchange rate Brazilian real/US$, exchange rate US$/Euro, Oil Price, Gold Price, and LIBOR effecting sugar producer countries’ price. We employ Vector Error Correction Models methods for a time series of weekly data from February 2007 to November 2012. The Impulse Response Function results varied between each variable, but in general can it be concluded that there are: negative response of Brazilian/Indian/French sugar price from shock of exchange rate and gold price; and positive response of Indian/Indonesian sugar price from shock of interest rate. The empirical results in variance decomposition test provided evidence that variability of sugar price of producer countries is varied between each variable. In general, it can be concluded that each of the sugar prices in producer countries (Brazil, India and Indonesia) had the biggest percentage to explain the variability of their own sugar price (above 96 percent). This indicates that Brazilian, Indian and Indonesian government protect their sugar industry from macroeconomic shock through sugar price policy/program.

Index Terms—Sugar producer countries, impulse response function, sugar price, variance decomposition, vector error correction models.

Kumara Jati is with Faculty of Business, Economics and Policy Studies, University of Brunei Darussalam (e-mail: kumara_jati@yahoo.com).

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Cite:Kumara Jati, "Sugar Commodity Price Analysis: Examining Sugar Producer Countries," International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance vol.4, no.5, pp. 288-295, 2013.

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