Abstract—The paper proposes an integrated approach for risk assessment of natural disasters using cloud computing, based on joint application of fuzzy logic models and an actuarial model. A hierarchical fuzzy logic system with several inputs and one output is designed. The risk assessment problem is defined as a multicriterial task that evaluates input variables (natural disaster indicators) and takes into account available information sources and the expert knowledge. The natural disaster indicators represent product of the probability of occurrence of a particular natural disaster and the aggregate loss caused by its action. The aggregate loss assessment is carried out by an actuarial model, more accurately, by the collective risk model. The main components of the collective risk model are discussed - the natural disaster magnitude (adverse events) and the negative consequences (severity of the damages). It is noted that the cloud computing is a model for providing on-demand Internet-based access to a shared pool of computing resources, including networks, storage and applications. The risk assessment results can support the state and local government to take more informed decisions regarding the efficient allocation of the available funding for the improvement of the population and infrastructure from natural disasters. The proposed fuzzy logic system with actuarial model is envisaged to be implemented as a part of an integrated information system for risk management of natural disasters in a cloud based environment. This system can be successfully used in e-government.
Index Terms—Actuarial model, cloud computing, fuzzy logic model, natural disasters, risk assessment.
P. Zlateva is with the ISER, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia 1113, Bl. 2, Bulgaria (e-mail:firstname.lastname@example.org). D. Velev is with the University of National and World Economy, Sofia 1700, Bulgaria (e-mail:email@example.com).
Cite:Plamena Zlateva, Yoshihiro Hirokawa, and Dimiter Velev, "An Integrated Approach for Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Using Cloud Computing," International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 134-138, 2013.