Abstract—Since the 60’s, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is under question. From recent events, particularly related to the 2008 Financial Crisis, financial assets appear as uncorrelated with their fundamentals and their prices are subject to strong fluctuations. In this context, including behavioral finance in financial system dynamics could be a response. On a more limited scope, the goal of present project is to establish a modeling process of gold price trend based on 1980 Grossman-Stiglitz model by integrating behavioral component for a better representation of markets reality. The modeling process is based on simulations and the article presents selected cognitive biases. The analysis of the results, and the corrections that followed, lead to the formulation of a mathematical model. Thus, the impact of cognitive biases on dynamics of gold price formation is demonstrated, and evaluated through their influence on informed (rational and irrational) and uninformed investors. The result of this study suggests that behavioral finance has a crucial part in gold price formation.
Index Terms—Behavioral finance, biases, gold, multi-agent based modeling.
The authors are with the ECE Paris School of Engineering, France (e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org).
Cite:L. Dieupart-Ruel, A. François, A. Grauffel, J. Le Roy, and T. Vacheret, "Effect of Behavioral Finance on Gold Price Trend," International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 129-133, 2013.